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 uncertainty expression


UNCLE: Benchmarking Uncertainty Expressions in Long-Form Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucination, particularly in long-form generations. A promising direction to mitigate hallucination is to teach LLMs to express uncertainty explicitly when they lack sufficient knowledge. However, existing work lacks direct and fair evaluation of LLMs' ability to express uncertainty effectively in long-form generation. To address this gap, we first introduce UNCLE, a benchmark designed to evaluate uncertainty expression in both long- and short-form question answering (QA). UNCLE covers five domains and includes more than 1,000 entities, each with paired short- and long-form QA items. Our dataset is the first to directly link short- and long-form QA through aligned questions and gold-standard answers. Along with UNCLE, we propose a suite of new metrics to assess the models' capabilities to selectively express uncertainty. We then demonstrate that current models fail to convey uncertainty appropriately in long-form generation. We further explore both prompt-based and training-based methods to improve models' performance, with the training-based methods yielding greater gains. Further analysis of alignment gaps between short- and long-form uncertainty expression highlights promising directions for future research using UNCLE.


Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human users increasingly rely on natural language interactions with large language models (LLMs) in order to receive help on a large variety of tasks and problems. However, the trustworthiness and perceived legitimacy of LLMs is undermined by the fact that their output is frequently stated in very confident terms, even when its accuracy is questionable. Therefore, there is a need to signal the confidence of the language model to a user in order to reap the benefits of human-machine collaboration and mitigate potential harms. Verbalized uncertainty is the expression of confidence with linguistic means, an approach that integrates perfectly into language-based interfaces. Nevertheless, most recent research in natural language processing (NLP) overlooks the nuances surrounding human uncertainty communication and the data biases that influence machine uncertainty communication. We argue for anthropomimetic uncertainty, meaning that intuitive and trustworthy uncertainty communication requires a degree of linguistic authenticity and personalization to the user, which could be achieved by emulating human communication. We present a thorough overview over the research in human uncertainty communication, survey ongoing research, and perform additional analyses to demonstrate so-far overlooked biases in verbalized uncertainty. We conclude by pointing out unique factors in human-machine communication of uncertainty and deconstruct anthropomimetic uncertainty into future research directions for NLP.


Alice: Proactive Learning with Teacher's Demonstrations for Weak-to-Strong Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing capabilities of large language models (LLMs) present a key challenge of maintaining effective human oversight. Weak-to-strong generalization (W2SG) offers a promising framework for supervising increasingly capable LLMs using weaker ones. Traditional W2SG methods rely on passive learning, where a weak teacher provides noisy demonstrations to train a strong student. This hinders students from employing their knowledge during training and reaching their full potential. In this work, we introduce Alice (pro{A}ctive {l}earning w{i}th tea{c}her's D{e}monstrations), a framework that leverages complementary knowledge between teacher and student to enhance the learning process. We probe the knowledge base of the teacher model by eliciting their uncertainty, and then use these insights together with teachers' responses as demonstrations to guide student models in self-generating improved responses for supervision. In addition, for situations with significant capability gaps between teacher and student models, we introduce cascade Alice, which employs a hierarchical training approach where weak teachers initially supervise intermediate models, who then guide stronger models in sequence. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the W2SG performance, yielding substantial improvements in three key tasks compared to the original W2SG: knowledge-based reasoning (+4.0%), mathematical reasoning (+22.62%), and logical reasoning (+12.11%). This highlights the effectiveness of our new W2SG paradigm that enables more robust knowledge transfer and supervision outcome.


Epistemic Alignment: A Mediating Framework for User-LLM Knowledge Delivery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LLMs increasingly serve as tools for knowledge acquisition, yet users cannot effectively specify how they want information presented. When users request that LLMs "cite reputable sources," "express appropriate uncertainty," or "include multiple perspectives," they discover that current interfaces provide no structured way to articulate these preferences. The result is prompt sharing folklore: community-specific copied prompts passed through trust relationships rather than based on measured efficacy. We propose the Epistemic Alignment Framework, a set of ten challenges in knowledge transmission derived from the philosophical literature of epistemology, concerning issues such as evidence quality assessment and calibration of testimonial reliance. The framework serves as a structured intermediary between user needs and system capabilities, creating a common vocabulary to bridge the gap between what users want and what systems deliver. Through a thematic analysis of custom prompts and personalization strategies shared on online communities where these issues are actively discussed, we find users develop elaborate workarounds to address each of the challenges. We then apply our framework to two prominent model providers, OpenAI and Anthropic, through content analysis of their documented policies and product features. Our analysis shows that while these providers have partially addressed the challenges we identified, they fail to establish adequate mechanisms for specifying epistemic preferences, lack transparency about how preferences are implemented, and offer no verification tools to confirm whether preferences were followed. For AI developers, the Epistemic Alignment Framework offers concrete guidance for supporting diverse approaches to knowledge; for users, it works toward information delivery that aligns with their specific needs rather than defaulting to one-size-fits-all approaches.


Annotating Scientific Uncertainty: A comprehensive model using linguistic patterns and comparison with existing approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

UnScientify, a system designed to detect scientific uncertainty in scholarly full text. The system utilizes a weakly supervised technique to identify verbally expressed uncertainty in scientific texts and their authorial references. The core methodology of UnScientify is based on a multi-faceted pipeline that integrates span pattern matching, complex sentence analysis and author reference checking. This approach streamlines the labeling and annotation processes essential for identifying scientific uncertainty, covering a variety of uncertainty expression types to support diverse applications including information retrieval, text mining and scientific document processing. The evaluation results highlight the trade-offs between modern large language models (LLMs) and the UnScientify system. UnScientify, which employs more traditional techniques, achieved superior performance in the scientific uncertainty detection task, attaining an accuracy score of 0.808. This finding underscores the continued relevance and efficiency of UnScientify's simple rule-based and pattern matching strategy for this specific application. The results demonstrate that in scenarios where resource efficiency, interpretability, and domain-specific adaptability are critical, traditional methods can still offer significant advantages.


LoGU: Long-form Generation with Uncertainty Expressions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.


Perceptions of Linguistic Uncertainty by Language Models and Humans

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty expressions such as ``probably'' or ``highly unlikely'' are pervasive in human language. While prior work has established that there is population-level agreement in terms of how humans interpret these expressions, there has been little inquiry into the abilities of language models to interpret such expressions. In this paper, we investigate how language models map linguistic expressions of uncertainty to numerical responses. Our approach assesses whether language models can employ theory of mind in this setting: understanding the uncertainty of another agent about a particular statement, independently of the model's own certainty about that statement. We evaluate both humans and 10 popular language models on a task created to assess these abilities. Unexpectedly, we find that 8 out of 10 models are able to map uncertainty expressions to probabilistic responses in a human-like manner. However, we observe systematically different behavior depending on whether a statement is actually true or false. This sensitivity indicates that language models are substantially more susceptible to bias based on their prior knowledge (as compared to humans). These findings raise important questions and have broad implications for human-AI alignment and AI-AI communication.


"I'm Not Sure, But...": Examining the Impact of Large Language Models' Uncertainty Expression on User Reliance and Trust

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Widely deployed large language models (LLMs) can produce convincing yet incorrect outputs, potentially misleading users who may rely on them as if they were correct. To reduce such overreliance, there have been calls for LLMs to communicate their uncertainty to end users. However, there has been little empirical work examining how users perceive and act upon LLMs' expressions of uncertainty. We explore this question through a large-scale, pre-registered, human-subject experiment (N=404) in which participants answer medical questions with or without access to responses from a fictional LLM-infused search engine. Using both behavioral and self-reported measures, we examine how different natural language expressions of uncertainty impact participants' reliance, trust, and overall task performance. We find that first-person expressions (e.g., "I'm not sure, but...") decrease participants' confidence in the system and tendency to agree with the system's answers, while increasing participants' accuracy. An exploratory analysis suggests that this increase can be attributed to reduced (but not fully eliminated) overreliance on incorrect answers. While we observe similar effects for uncertainty expressed from a general perspective (e.g., "It's not clear, but..."), these effects are weaker and not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that using natural language expressions of uncertainty may be an effective approach for reducing overreliance on LLMs, but that the precise language used matters. This highlights the importance of user testing before deploying LLMs at scale.


R-Tuning: Teaching Large Language Models to Refuse Unknown Questions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized numerous domains with their impressive performance but still face their challenges. A predominant issue is the propensity for these models to generate non-existent facts, a concern termed hallucination. Our research is motivated by the observation that previous instruction tuning methods force the model to complete a sentence no matter whether the model knows the knowledge or not. When the question is out of the parametric knowledge, it will try to make up something and fail to indicate when it lacks knowledge. In this paper, we present a new approach called Refusal-Aware Instruction Tuning (R-Tuning). This approach is formalized by first identifying the knowledge gap between parametric knowledge and the instruction tuning data. Then, we construct the refusal-aware data based on the knowledge intersection, to tune LLMs to refrain from responding to questions beyond its parametric knowledge. Experimental results demonstrate this new instruction tuning approach effectively improves a model's ability to answer known questions and refrain from answering unknown questions. Furthermore, when tested on out-of-domain datasets, the refusal ability was found to be a meta-skill that could be generalized to other tasks. Further analysis surprisingly finds that learning the uncertainty during training displays a better ability to estimate uncertainty than uncertainty-based testing. Our code will be released at https://github.com/shizhediao/R-Tuning.


UnScientify: Detecting Scientific Uncertainty in Scholarly Full Text

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This demo paper presents UnScientify, an interactive system designed to detect scientific uncertainty in scholarly full text. The system utilizes a weakly supervised technique that employs a fine-grained annotation scheme to identify verbally formulated uncertainty at the sentence level in scientific texts. The pipeline for the system includes a combination of pattern matching, complex sentence checking, and authorial reference checking. Our approach automates labeling and annotation tasks for scientific uncertainty identification, taking into account different types of scientific uncertainty, that can serve various applications such as information retrieval, text mining, and scholarly document processing. Additionally, UnScientify provides interpretable results, aiding in the comprehension of identified instances of scientific uncertainty in text.